Best Actor
Johnny Depp
Ben Kingsley
Jude Law
Bill Murray
Sean Penn
Will Win: Penn
Should Win: Murray
Why Was He Nominated?: Law
Should Have Been Nominated: Sean Penn for 21 Grams
Depp's SAG win notwithstanding, Murray's only obstacle to winning is Penn for Mystic River. And considering how close that race is to call, I'm going to fall back on Oscar history and say they'll leave the comedian out in the cold. As for who else should have been in on this, the only thing I can speak for is Penn's other performance--although I felt he was outperformed by his two co-stars, he was still damn good. And Jude Law, God love him--when the only reason you're nominated is because you're in a Miramax film, just give it up. Great actor, just wasn't given anything to do here.
Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes
Diane Keaton
Samantha Morton
Charlize Theron
Naomi Watts
Will Win: Theron
Should Have Been Nominated: Uma Thurman for Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Theron is about the only solid lock I would say for this year's ceremony; even more of a lock than Jackson for director. While I fear I haven't seen Monster (hey, the people who sent screeners got priority--sue me), I've heard from many I respect that she achieved a shocking transformation that just blows you out the back of your chair--so I'm not going to argue, I'm just going to be pissed that Thurman didn't get nommed somewhere in there. Like the film or lump it, Thurman's performance can't be argued about. So don't even try.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
City of God
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
Flaws with the adaptation aside, no one can argue that it doesn't take balls to write a 10-hour screenplay. Oscar won't either. Only upset might be for Mystic River, but I dunno. I think Return will sweep, personally.
Best Animated Feature Film
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville
Will Win: Finding Nemo
Should Win: Finding Nemo
Hollywood loves a success story. And Nemo blew everybody but LOTR out of the water. I'll be surprised as hell if they don't award it accordingly.
Best Art Direction
Girl With a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Girl With a Pearl Earring
Should Have Been Nominated: Pirates of the Caribbean
LOTR will take it just for sheer overwhelming scope, but Girl should win just on sheer attention to detail. The fact they were able to make an entire movie look like a Vermeer painting is just amazing. And Pirates should have been in there somewhere just because over the top live action cartoon stuff is always impressive when done well.
Best Cinematography
City of God
Cold Mountain
Girl With a Pearl Earring
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Seabiscuit
Should Win: Girl With a Pearl Earring
Should Have Been Nominated: Return of the King
Seabiscuit will probably take it, considering the hoops they had to jump through to film the horse races the way they did (and no one actually saw Master and Commander), although again, the composition of shots in Girl should be the one to win the day. And as for what didn't get nominated, I think that's patently obvious.
Best Costume Design
Girl With a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
Should Have Been Nominated: Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Again, I think LOTR will pick this up in a sweep and rightfully so. Again, they win on scope, but I agree with it. It's a hard call what should have been included, between Bill and Pirates, but considering the homework done to make Bill the perfect homage to films about fu, I'd side with it just for sentimental reasons.
Best Director
Sofia Coppola
Clint Eastwood
Peter Jackson
Fernando Meirelles
Peter Weir
Will Win: Jackson
Should Win: Jackson
Should Have Been Nominated: Quentin Tarantino for Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Jackson had the cojones to make his trilogy and it kicked serious box office ass. Now is the payoff and he will be rewarded for it. Even if you disagree with some of his choices, the fact he pulled the damn thing off at all is cause to be impressed. Tarantino deserved a nod for his opus, although Oscar, as we've seen, is funny about nominated people for half a movie.
Best Documentary Feature
It doesn't matter. Friedmans will win.
Best Editing
City of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
Why Was It Nominated? Cold Mountain
Should Have Been Nominated: 21 Grams
Return of the King will snag it as part of its sweep and rightfully so. Cold Mountain was a flick that thought it was The English Patient and most definitely was not--so it just needs to go away. It makes Chocolat look like Oscar Gold. In its place should have been the twisty, craziness of 21 Grams, which was edited to puzzling perfection.
Best Makeup
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Will Win: Yawn. Return.
Should Win: Double yawn. Return.
Why Was it Nominated?: Master
Should Have Been Nominated: Monster.
At least this year we get some decent nominees. Although how you could leave off the transformation that Theron underwent for Monster is beyond me.
Best Original Score
Big Fish
Cold Mountain
Finding Nemo
House of Sand and Fog
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Finding Nemo
Again, the sweep will give the Oscar to Shore, but the score that left the best impression on me this past year was Thomas Newman's for Nemo.
Best Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
Finding Nemo
In America
Lost in Translation
Will Win: Lost in Translation
Should Win: Lost in Translation
Should Have Been Nominated: 21 Grams
Best Original Song
Cold Mountain: "Scarlet Tide"
Cold Mountain: "You Will Be My Ain True Love"
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: "Into the West"
A Mighty Wind: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow"
The Triplets of Belleville: "The Triplets of Belleville"
Will Win: Lord of the Rings
Should Win: Mighty Wind
Should Have Been Nominated: A Mighty Wind: "A Mighty Wind"
Again, the sweep will take this, although I'd be jazzed as hell if Mighty Wind upset it here.
Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Lost in Translation
Should Have Been Nominated: Kill Bill Vol. 1
Many are the films that would deserve this honor before Return, but that's not going to happen. It'll take it because it's a success story and people will feel bad (in their souls) that they didn't give the award to Fellowship, the only chapter to truly deserve this. Lost is one of the films that deserves it more and only an upset from hell would give the award to it. Kill Bill is still the only flawless film I've seen this year, thus should have at least been nommed.
Best Sound
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Seabiscuit
Best Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Who the hell cares? Why do they need two sound awards anyway? Christ.
Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin
Benicio Del Toro
Djimon Hounsou
Tim Robbins
Ken Watanabe
Will Win: Robbins
Should Win: Del Toro
I think Penn and Robbins will take both the male acting nods for Mystic River, but anyone who's seen Del Toro's scene where he trades scripture verses on a jail cell with another zealot--that shit is intense.
Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo
Patricia Clarkson
Marcia Gay Harden
Holly Hunter
Renee Zellweger
Will Win: Zellweger
Should Win: Zellweger
We praised the Maker when Zellweger showed up about a half hour into Cold Mountain. While the film was too ponderous
and long for her to carry on her own, she did her damndest.
Best Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
There's almost a lock on this one as well. After the battle scenes in Return, I'm not sure who could argue.
Totals I Think Will Win:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - 10
Mystic River - 2
Capturing the Friedmans - 1
Cold Mountain - 1
Finding Nemo - 1
Lost in Translation - 1
Monster - 1
Seabiscuit - 1
Be good.
=Widge