Listen to my spiel here for an explanation of this mess. This is for your edification while listening and while watching the ceremony on Sunday night.
Updated 3/19 - Forgot the Best Supporting Actress category--added it and my comments here. Remember kids, don't do drugs.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody
Nicolas Cage
Michael Caine
Daniel Day-Lewis
Jack Nicholson
Will Win: Day-Lewis
Should Win: Day-Lewis
Should Have Been Nominated: Richard Gere for Chicago
Best Actress
Salma Hayek
Nicole Kidman
Diane Lane
Julianne Moore
Renée Zellweger
Will Win: Kidman
Should Win: Kidman
Best Adapted Screenplay
About a Boy
Adaptation
Chicago
The Hours
The Pianist
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Why Was it Nominated? Adaptation
Should Have Been Nominated: The Road to Perdition
Best Animated Feature Film
Ice Age
Lilo & Stitch
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Spirited Away
Treasure Planet
Will Win: Ice Age
Best Art Direction
Chicago
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Road to Perdition
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Should Have Been Nominated: Far From Heaven
Best Cinematography
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Pianist
The Road to Perdition
Will Win: The Road to Perdition
Should Win: The Road to Perdition
Why Was It Nominated? The Pianist
Should Have Been Nominated: Unfaithful
Best Costume Design
Chicago
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Pianist
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Best Director
Pedro Almodovar for Talk to Her
Stephen Daldry for The Hours
Rob Marshall for Chicago
Roman Polanski for The Pianist
Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York
Will Win: Marshall
Should Win: Marshall
Why Was He Nominated? Polanski
Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Mendes for The Road to Perdition
Best Documentary Feature
It doesn't matter. Michael Moore will win.
Best Editing
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Why Was It Nominated? The Pianist
Should Have Been Nominated: The Road to Perdition
Best Makeup
Frida
The Time Machine
Will Win: Who gives a good goddamn?
Should Have Been Nominated: ANYTHING ELSE. GOOD CHRIST.
Best Original Score
Catch Me If You Can
Far From Heaven
Frida
The Hours
The Road to Perdition
Will Win: The Hours
Should Win: The Hours
Best Original Screenplay
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Talk to Her
Y Tu Mama Tambien
Will Win: My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Why Was it Nominated? Gangs of New York
Best Original Song
Chicago
8 Mile
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Wild Thornberrys
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: 8 Mile
Best Picture
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Why Was It Nominated? The Pianist
Should Have Been Nominated: The Road to Perdition
Best Sound
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Road to Perdition
Spider-Man
Will Win: Chicago
Should Win: Chicago
Why Was It Nominated? Spider-Man
Best Sound Editing
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
The Road to Perdition
Who the hell cares? Why do they need two sound awards anyway?
Best Supporting Actor
Chris Cooper
Ed Harris
Paul Newman
John C. Reilly
Christopher Walken
Will Win: Cooper
Should Win: Newman
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates
Julianne Moore
Queen Latifah
Meryl Streep
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Will Win: Zeta-Jones
Should Win: Moore
Why Was She Nominated? Streep
Should Have Been Nominated: Tovah Feldshuh for Kissing Jessica Stein
Comments: Well since I bloody well left out the whole category, let me explain here. Chicago is going to dominate completely, and part of the upswell will be Catherine taking the category. Not that she wasn't damn good--she was. However, Julianne Moore's turn in The Hours was just as impressive for how low-key and subtle it was as Zeta-Jones' role was for being over-the-top, slinky perfection. Queen Latifah got nominated on the upswell, but I can't question her nom. Bates, I have not seen her performance. But Streep--Adaptation was such a mediocre mess that really the only two people to shine out of it were Cage and Cooper...I found myself wondering what in the hell attracted Streep to the role in the first place. Instead, you should have Tovah Feldshuh's turn as Jessica's mom in Jessica Stein. There is a moment in the scene on the porch--if you've seen it you know what I'm talking about--where she nailed The Mom Thing so hard that I literally shook all over. She was perfection and should have at least gotten a nom. -Widge, 3/19
Best Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Spider-Man
Star Wars, Episode II: Attack of the Clones
Will Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Should Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Should Have Been Nominated: Minority Report
Totals I Think Will Win:
Chicago - 9
The Hours - 2
Adaptation - 1
Gangs of New York - 1
Ice Age - 1
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - 1
My Big Fat Greek Wedding - 1
The Road to Perdition - 1
Be good.
=Widge